Italy and Greece have some stark differences in their Economy one difference is Italy is too big to fail and unlike Greece it is too big to be helped by others. Despite of all this Italy is in good shape as compared to the Euro Area countries and if the borrowing cost can be capped at 6% it may still remain solvent. As compared to Greece whose public debt was expected to rise to 190% of the GDP before private creditors decided to write off a bigger portion, whereas on the other hand Italy’s public debt is expected to stabilize at 120%. The net international debt on Italy is less as compared to other troubled economies. These debt levels can be bought down to comfortable level with high GDP growth The average Italian was worse off in 2010 than in 2000: GDP per head fell over the decade (see chart). Outsiders point to the lost option of devaluation to explain Italy’s funk. But the root cause of Italy’s lost export competitiveness is its dismal productivity growth.
The deeper causes of weak productivity are a two-tier jobs market, which protects the jobs of older workers in dying industries but traps youngsters in temporary work; the industry-wide wage bargains that mean businesses cannot match wages to productivity; the closed-shop professions and trades that are a barrier to innovation and efficiency; and so on.
Italy still has some world-class firms and brands, and an exporting prowess that could be built on. Yet it does not have enough firms of sufficient scale. The ubiquity of micro family businesses is related to Italy’s rigid regulations, as are its tax-collecting problems. Small firms fall below the regulatory thresholds and are less often attached to the formal economy. If Italy is to carry its outsize public debts, it urgently needs to promote an environment where big businesses can flourish.
Joseph Schumpeter, the great Austrian economist, once wrote: “The monetary system of a people reflects everything that the nation wants, does, suffers, is
The Euro won’t be safe until the Europe answers some fundamental questions. The future of Euro will depend upon the choice made by ECB in the coming months. EU has repeatedly failed to put forth a euro rescue plan and the last one fell just one stop short. The one good thing with Europe is that it is still in a better shape as compared to the US, in terms of debt. Europe’s ‘deep pocket’ countries must come forward to help the governments of PIIGS countries. ECB has not yet made it clear in the market that they are willing to step in and as the Economist is arguing that ECB should buy the debt in unlimited quantities on the secondary market. Other thing is that the Europeans are at odds over what the crisis is really about, and riven by disagreement over what each country must contribute towards solving it
Italy is in tatters and Mr. Berlusconi has decided to step down as the PM. This is the most intelligent decision taken by him. I strongly believe that Italy still stands a chance. Saving rate of Italy is high and government tax recipients are not too dependent on property and stuff. What Italy currently needs is a sound leader to put the confidence of the investor’s back in the country. During Silvio’s regime the economy of Italy grew miserably (faster than Haiti and Zimababwe only). If Europe wants to survive the crisis it becomes imperative to save Italy and for Italy to succeed a lot of things has to fall in place all at the same time and with collective approach this can be achieved.
Currently the situation of Italy does not look good, the bond yield has reached the danger level 7.5% which can put the whole Italy into Insolvency. If the 3rd largest bond market starts to buckle it will bring down anything and eveything you can think of. Markets sentiments must be controlled which are becoming haywire after the news that LCH Clearnet has raise the margin call for anyone dealing in Italian bond markets and the talks that they are contemplating a new club of euro countries have the capability live within the rules, and leaving the rest. ECB is sending some signals that it will step in to ease the Italian bond market but news and chats like these will kill the attempts of pacifying the market.
Everything seems a bit hazy right now but if ECB, France and Germany and the most important people of Italy, if they all stand firm on the ground for saving the Euro this daunting target can be achieved.